China warns strong El Nino this year may worsen global fossil fuel crisis

This year’s El Nino could increase the global demand for fossil fuels and worsen the price rises caused by the Iran crisis, Chinese government scientists have said.

The climate phenomenon happens every two to seven years and causes an increase in average global temperatures.

A strong El Nino can bring either droughts or torrential rains and flooding, both of which may force hydropower stations to reduce their output or shut down entirely – increasing the need for other power sources, including oil and gas.

“El Nino could hit hydropower-dependent regions hard, pushing them to burn more fossil fuels for electricity instead. That would raise both carbon emissions and the cost of imported energy, creating a damaging loop that worsens climate change and strains economies,” said Wang Yaqi, a senior engineer at the National Climate Centre.

The China Meteorological Administration said on Saturday that moderate-to-strong El Nino conditions were forecast to emerge globally next month and develop throughout the rest of the year.

The warning follows the sharp rise in global oil prices caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has prompted the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a key shipping route for global energy supplies.

If El Nino reduces power output in hydropower-dependent areas such as South Asia, Southeast Asia and parts of Africa, these regions would be forced to burn more oil and gas to generate electricity, creating a spike in demand that is likely to push up prices further.

The term El Nino describes a prolonged warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

This then causes the ocean to release huge amounts of stored heat into the air, leading to a notable increase in average temperatures around the world.

An El Nino event is confirmed when the rise in ocean surface temperatures averages at least 0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months or more.

Events are ranked by strength: weak (0.5 to 1.3 degrees), moderate (1.3 to 2 degrees), strong (2 to 2.5 degrees) and very strong (above 2.5 degrees).

Higher temperatures can also cause extreme weather events because warmer air holds about 7 per cent more moisture for every degree of warming.

This means evaporation rates speed up, making droughts worse and longer-lasting. But it also can cause violent swings between very dry and very wet weather because when that moisture turns to rain, it can also lead to violent storms and flooding.

“Stronger El Nino episodes often coincide with high temperatures, drought and extreme rainfall, and compound events that collectively affect sectors such as energy and public health,” Wang said.

“A very strong El Nino can trigger severe floods that force hydropower plants to reduce output or shut down, while also damaging power lines and substations through landslides and high water levels. In the opposite case of drought, power generation suffers from a sharp drop in water supply.

“The risks posed by an El Nino to various sectors are not driven by El Nino alone but result from the synergistic interplay of multiple factors. In this complex system, El Nino typically acts as either an amplifier or a trigger.”

The last very strong El Nino occurred in 2015, and the following year shattered the global average temperature record. Another El Nino developed three years ago and 2024 went on to break the record for the global mean surface temperature.

However, the National Climate Centre tried to calm speculation circulating on social media about the impact of El Nino.

Chen Lijuan, the centre’s chief forecaster, urged caution about claims that it would be the strongest El Nino in 140 years or trigger a global heat emergency.

“Given the lagged effects of El Nino, it is premature to assert that the Earth will hit a new temperature extreme this year, but the associated risks are undeniably rising significantly,” she said.