Skip to main content

Featured post

Featured post ~ BBC Verify

Six key lines from Trump's statement on Iran strikes


In the early hours of Saturday morning, President Donald Trump announced that the US had launched military strikes on Iran.

In an eight-minute video statement posted to social media, he said the US was undertaking a "massive and ongoing operation" to end the Iranian threat and he called for regime change in Tehran.

"It's a very simple message," the president said from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. "They will never have a nuclear weapon."

The BBC's State Department correspondent Tom Bateman and Washington correspondent Daniel Bush break down the president's words line by line to explain how he is justifying the action and assess the risks ahead.

Trump's basis for strikes

"Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world."

​​The key words here are "imminent threats". The commander-in-chief knows he has to justify why this attack - which does not have formal international backing nor the authorisation of Congress - is happening now.

Trump makes three cases here: that Iran has been an imminent threat to America ever since the Islamic Revolution in 1979; that it is close to developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach the US - a claim which is not supported by US intelligence assessments; and that it is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, even though Trump had said these capabilities were "obliterated" after the US strikes last summer.

​​The reality over the timing is that Trump and Netanyahu view the Iranian leadership as at its weakest point domestically for years with its allied militias in the region decimated after the Gaza war. Tehran's brutal crushing of this year's protests started a stopwatch. They believe this is the moment to strike - Tom Bateman.

Time for negotiations over

"We sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried. They wanted to do it. They didn't want to do it again. They wanted to do it. They didn't want to do it."

Trump's case here is that the US had no choice but to strike because of a recalcitrant Iranian regime that played Washington's outreach to negotiate an end to its nuclear programme. He said on the eve of the attack Tehran wouldn't "give us what we have to have".

Over recent weeks Trump equivocated over the extent of his demands, at times saying a deal had to include an end to Iran's conventional missile capabilities, other times suggesting it did not. But his red line converged on the demand for zero nuclear enrichment.

Tehran saw this as a humiliation. Mediated talks between the US and Iran were due to continue next week, with mediator Oman claiming on Friday a breakthrough was within reach with Iran offering no stockpiling of nuclear material. But Trump balked at this.

However, the reality remains it was Trump in his first term who unilaterally pulled the US out of the Obama-led 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and Iran. Trump said the deal was too weak. But Tehran always used this as evidence to claim it was him not them that took the path of violence over negotiations - Tom Bateman.

'Operation Epic Fury'

"For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests."

Now that Operation Epic Fury is under way, everyone - lawmakers in Congress, US allies, Iran - want to know how long it will last, and how big it might be.

President Trump's words signal that the scope and scale of the attack will be much larger than the US strike on Iran last summer. But it's notable that Trump didn't provide any more details, leaving it up for interpretation whether the strikes will last days, weeks or even longer.

It's also notable that Trump did not seek congressional authorisation for the attack. That has angered lawmakers, especially Democrats, who are calling for Congress to rein Trump in.

The administration briefed a small group of congressional leaders ahead of the attack. But on Saturday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he hoped the administration briefs "all senators" on the operation. Expect the administration to face growing pressure from Congress to justify this operation.

Separately, by linking Iran to "core national security interests," Trump is seeking to convince Americans that attacking Tehran will make the US homeland safer. This will be a key challenge for Trump: building support at home for his military actions abroad, at a time when many voters would prefer he focus on domestic issues like the economy and immigration - Daniel Bush.

US troops under threat

"The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties, that often happens in war. We're doing this, not for now, we're doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission."

Military actions always carry risk, and there is a long history of US presidents launching wars or covert operations in the Middle East that damaged them politically back home.

President Trump acknowledged that risk by admitting there are likely to be some American casualties. He may be betting that he can rally the American public behind the attack, keep the casualties at a minimum, and come away with some sort of military victory he can tout to voters ahead of the midterm elections in November.

That is a calculated risk, however. It's unclear how events in Iran will unfold. But if this spirals into a wider regional war it could draw the US back into a lengthy conflict in the Middle East - something Trump promised he wouldn't do. He campaigned on a pledge to end "forever wars" and disentangle the US from foreign conflicts.

Vice-President JD Vance echoed the sentiment earlier this week, before the strikes started, and it's a popular position with the MAGA base. But with each new military action abroad Trump and Vance risk alienating supporters who did not envision or want such a muscular approach to foreign policy - Daniel Bush.

Trump's strategic objective

"To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or, in the alternative, face certain death."

Here we get to the most critical part of Trump's speech: his strategic objective. This matters most because ambiguity over his goal has been repeatedly questioned in Congress and the path to it is strewn with the greatest risks of all.

It is now unequivocal this is a war of attempted regime change launched by the US and Israel. Decapitation worked as far as Trump was concerned in Venezuela, storming the capital and snatching leader Nicolas Maduro.

Iranian officials last week appeared to be quietly briefing out the idea that trying to do a Venezuela on them wouldn't work, that a masterplan was in place even if the supreme leader was killed, with four layers of succession ready to head the regime.

Trump is rolling the dice on a similar outcome to Venezuela, through either a popular uprising or a badly damaged regime that becomes pliant to Washington's will.

But the dangers are immense. They include the possibility of unleashing uncontrollable civil conflict and bloodshed within Iran itself; a regional conflict drawing in America's key Arab allies whose monarchies detest the idea of domestic instability; and the deaths of American troops and personnel in the region - Tom Bateman.

Appeal to Iranian people

"Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand…when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations."

In recent months Trump has pressured Iran on two fronts, urging Tehran to abandon its nuclear weapons programme and stop the deadly crackdown on mass protests that swept the country.

Here, he sought to keep the focus on democracy-building with a direct appeal to the Iranian population. But he also added an ominous warning, saying it would be the "only chance for generations" to transform Iranian society. It's not quite a call for full regime change, but Trump is making clear the US wants drastic change, and expects it'll be driven from within the country.




Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Signs With The Weeknd Manager Wassim ‘SAL’ Slaiby's SALXCO & Amir ‘Cash’ Esmailian

Sean "Diddy" Combs   has hired manager  Wassim "Sal" Slaiby , best known for managing The Weeknd , Slaiby has confirmed to  Billboard . The Weeknd co-manager Amir "Cash" Esmailian has also been hired by Combs. Combs’ hiring of Slaiby and Esmailian follows the mogul's signing with WME in June, in a deal that also saw him partner with the agency to launch The Excellence Program, a virtual development program and resume database for aspiring entertainment executives from underrepresented communities. In May, Combs announced that he had officially changed his middle name  from “Diddy” to “Love” -- a moniker switch first revealed in 2017 -- though he is still commonly referred to as Diddy in the press. Slaiby, the founder and CEO of SALXCO and XO Records, also manages Doja Cat, French Montana, Bebe Rexha, Ty Dolla $ign  and Swedish House Mafia ,  who signed with him in June. Slaiby was named manager of the year by  Variety ...

'All I can say is sorry' - Rashford responds to racist abuse & opens up on Euro 2020 final penalty miss

Marcus Rashford has said that he has "felt no prouder moment" representing England at Euro 2020 and that he "will never apologise for who I am and where I came from" after he was subjected to racist abuse following the Three Lions' defeat to Italy. Gareth Southgate's side were beaten 3-2 on spot kicks in the Euro 2020 final, with Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Bukayo Saka the three players to see their efforts fall short, leading to the trio receiving abhorrent racist messages online. Reflecting on his miss in the shootout, Manchester United forward Rashford admits that "something didn't feel quite right" before he stepped up to take the penalty, while he has vowed the Three Lions will "be back stronger" "I don't even know where to start and I don't even know how to put into words how I'm feeling at this exact time," Rashford wrote in a statement published on his social media accounts. "I've had ...

The Weeknd & Angelina Jolie Spotted Together Again

This is the second time The Weeknd and Angelina Jolie were spotted together. It's not clear whether they're dating, really good friends, or business partners, but  The Weeknd  and Angelina Jolie are getting pretty close. The two celebrities have been spotted together multiple times now following their initial spotting last week . Fans were surprised to have spotted them together having dinner at a lavish Los Angeles restaurant and this weekend, they were breathing the same air again. The Weeknd and Angelina Jolie were reportedly both at a private concert by Toronto artist Mustafa. Weeknd was seated with his friends while Jolie was nearby with two of her kids. Sources, including Page Six, have reported that this may lead to an amplified interest in an acting career for The Weeknd, who previously starred in  Uncut Gems . He currently has a few projects that he's working on, including HBO's The Idol ,  and his relations...

Drake & French Montana Tease Possible New Collab

Drake's Certified Lover Boy may have been delayed , but many expect to see the project sooner than later. In fact, we may have already seen a glimpse at the style  Drizzy plans on bringing to the table, with the  Scary Hours 2  three-pack   serving as a welcome prelude to the main event. Other than that, however, little else is known about Drake's sixth studio album. Today, French Montana  took to Instagram to signal a promising development. Sharing a picture of himself and The Boy, with whom he most recently  collaborated on the platinum hit "No Stylist, " French alluded to another forthcoming release from the pair. "We'll see what's 'bout to happen next, okayyyyyyyyyyy?!" he captions, allowing the image to fill in the appropriate blanks. Naturally, French's hype-inducing post sparked many to speculate about his involvement on  Certified Lover Boy,  though it should be noted that Montana has yet to appear on a...

'Good' & 'Bad' Still Best: Olivia Rodrigo & Ed Sheeran Hold Atop Billboard Global Charts

Olivia Rodrigo's "Good 4 U" rules the Billboard Global 200  for a sixth week, while Ed Sheeran' s "Bad Habits" notches a second week at No. 1 on the Billboard Global Excl. U.S . chart. Plus, Måneskin continues to scale the top three of both surveys with "Beggin'," after the Italian quartet won  the 2021 Eurovision Song Contest. Billboard 's two global charts (the latest of which are dated July 17) began  last September and rank songs based on streaming and sales activity culled from more than 200 territories around the world, as compiled by MRC Data. The Billboard Global 200 is inclusive of worldwide data and the Billboard Global Excl. U.S. chart comprises data from territories excluding the U.S. Chart rankings are based on a weighted formula incorporating official-only streams on both subscription and ad-supported tiers of audio and video music services, as well as download sales, the latter of which reflect purchases from full...

Justin Bieber Moves Justice World Tour to 2022 & Adds New Dates

Justin Bieber  is ready to bring  Justice  to the masses. The global pop star has announced rescheduled dates for his Justice World Tour, which was originally set to kick off this summer. Bieber will now hit the road in 2022, launching with a Feb. 18 show at Pechanga Arena in San Diego. The tour, promoted by AEG, will run through Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, Denver, Atlanta, Montreal, Tampa, Austin and more. The 52-date trek will close out June 24 at American Family Insurance Amphitheater in Milwaukee. “We’re working hard to make this tour the best one yet,” Bieber said in a release. “I’m excited to get out there and engage with my fans again.” In addition to the rescheduled dates, Bieber has added another seven performances to the tour. Tickets for the newly announced shows in Jacksonville, Orlando, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Des Moines, Austin and Uncasville, Connecticut, will go on sale later this month. The tour will be in support of Bieber'...

Those Who Wish Me Dead Trailer: Angelina Jolie Fights Fire & Assassins

Angelina Jolie  is fighting off fire and assassins in the trailer for Those Who Wish Me Dead.  Jolie stars as Hannah Faber, a smokejumper and survival expert who crosses paths with a young child, played by Finn Little, on the run from two assassins. Little's character, Connor, has witnessed a murder and the two assassins (Nicholas Hoult and Aidan Gillen) are determined to flush him out of the Montana wilderness so they can get rid of any loose ends. What they didn't expect is for Connor to team up with Hannah and the film will follow the two as they navigate the burning forest after the assassins set the wilderness ablaze. Those Who Wish Me Dead  hails from Taylor Sheridan who wrote and directed the neo-western film. Sheridan is known for his gritty tales set in the modern American west. Before he began directing, Sheridan helped write Denis Villeneuve's  Sicario  and David Mackenzie's Hell or High   Water   before directing ...

Meet The Designer Behind Cartier’s Most Iconic Watches Adored By Bella, Dua, & More

A surprising fact about Marie-Laure Cérède, Cartier's  creative director of watchmaking, is that she never wears her wristwatch  set to the right time. “It’s a creative statement,” she tells  Vogue . “I don’t want my Cartier  watch to tell me the time. My time is busy, and this is an object of grace and beauty.” Her words echo that of artist Andy Warhol, who was rarely seen without his Cartier Tank, of which he once said:   “I don’t wear a Tank watch to tell the time. Actually, I never even wind it. I wear a Tank because it is the watch to wear.”  Watches created by the 174-year-old maison, which first began as a jeweller, have long adorned the wrists of the stylish and influential, from Princess Diana (Tank Solo) and Michelle Obama ( Tank Francaise)  to Dua Lipa and Bella Hadid (both Panthère de Cartier fans). And Cérède is charged with building on that legacy, which can be traced back to 1904 – when Louis Cartier first cre...

Travel ~ The Best Spas in Europe That Mix Travel With Pure Relaxation

As summer comes to an end and the colder months loom, what better time to book yourself in for some pampering? With outstanding views, innovative treatments, and gourmet dining, Europe is home to some of the most rejuvenating retreats in the world. Take Royal Champagne Hotel And Spa, which nestled amongst the region’s rolling vineyards offers a picture-perfect all sleep   experience. After a full-body MOT and complete detox , while going offline in the beauty of nature? VivaMayr in the Austrian Alps has you covered. Below, find pick of the best spas in Europe that deliver on luxury wellness. Royal Champagne Hotel and Spa Wind your way through the picturesque rolling vineyards of Champillon and eventually you’ll reach the elegant Royal Champagne Hotel And Spa—the region’s first contemporary luxury spa hotel. A wine-country retreat, Royal Champagne has two exceptional restaurants (including the one Michelin-starred Le Royal with a menu orchestrated b...

This Extortion & Scam Must Stop - Tuface Idibia Calls Out NCDC For Frustrating Travelers

Nigerian singer, Innocent Ujah Idibia, popularly known as “2baba” has called out the Nigerian Center For Disease Control, NCDC, for frustrating travelers. Recall that the Federal Government earlier made the COVID-19 test compulsory component for travelers following the pandemic. Following the development, there have been complaints from Nigerians who lamented the inefficiency of the workers in the Agency to deliver prompt services to travelers. In a related development, 2baba in a video via his Instagram account on Wednesday, lashed out at the Agency for frustrating him and other travelers who had important errands and business dealings to do. The singer complained bitterly, adding that after requesting for such a huge amount like 50 thousand from travelers, the NCDC is nowhere to be found even when they know people travel every second. NCDC you people better wake up because you’re causing serious problems and hardship for people traveling. “You keep requesting for ransoms ...