With not one, but two ceasefires in place across the Middle East, is the scene now set for a pair of historic breakthroughs? The ceasefires - in Iran and Lebanon - are both described as "shaky" (ceasefires generally are), but as the din of war fades away once more, this is a moment pregnant with opportunity. And risk. On the face of it, Thursday night's announcement of a 10-day pause in the fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah, is a win for Iran. The regime in Tehran had demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon, saying talks with the US could not be expected to progress without it. With the pause now in place, Iran has responded, declaring the Strait of Hormuz "completely open". As last weekend's marathon negotiating session in Islamabad showed, progress was in fact possible, even as the fighting in Lebanon continued (with Israel merely avoiding further attacks on Beirut). But Iran and Pakistan both insisted that Lebanon must b...
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